Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 7.844894 9.023182 10.294927 11.766674 13.419940 15.216682 17.313995
2026-01-11 6.069438 7.647649 9.486491 11.775445 14.535503 17.742761 21.737261
2026-01-18 5.073616 6.787207 8.885553 11.622113 15.072198 19.250836 24.665052
2026-01-25 4.381871 6.186847 8.497628 11.637935 15.754063 20.920916 27.845690
2026-02-01 3.885127 5.750717 8.233220 11.728488 16.464017 22.590243 31.035926
2026-02-08 3.423454 5.298455 7.885647 11.650198 16.908393 23.900561 33.789910
2026-02-15 3.032176 4.894302 7.552527 11.540449 17.269103 25.080737 36.388572
2026-02-22 2.752197 4.618597 7.367554 11.608242 17.856738 26.571982 39.452342
2026-03-01 2.575874 4.478743 7.362023 11.923001 18.797755 28.580864 43.306824
2026-03-08 2.301382 4.153717 7.045044 11.739729 18.983917 29.507338 45.646892
2026-03-15 1.991685 3.737532 6.547917 11.235504 18.644253 29.634400 46.811634
2026-03-22 1.885558 3.652103 6.567498 11.536274 19.541016 31.613993 50.767440
2026-03-29 1.763071 3.529543 6.521229 11.734898 20.300663 33.440731 54.606073
2026-04-05 1.601476 3.320481 6.312457 11.649996 20.600722 34.575136 57.440444
2026-04-12 1.452663 3.118106 6.095775 11.530447 20.826983 35.589994 60.112739
2026-04-19 1.338419 2.968949 5.959117 11.534809 21.251123 36.926134 63.329590
2026-04-26 1.248158 2.856845 5.878783 11.628658 21.824213 38.516283 66.999844
2026-05-03 1.143296 2.703893 5.709725 11.549560 22.091342 39.612219 69.907941
2026-05-10 1.045038 2.553713 5.532725 11.441129 22.295804 40.604799 72.674193
2026-05-17 0.976440 2.459157 5.454511 11.508240 22.808783 42.125689 76.355866
2026-05-24 0.940099 2.431471 5.505305 11.820682 23.774392 44.445241 81.444079
2026-05-31 0.855491 2.285879 5.306902 11.638772 23.826045 45.195420 83.907167
2026-06-07 0.748821 2.076473 4.959188 11.138371 23.256908 44.837299 84.457029